Author: tio

  • When Satellite Imagery Goes Dark: New Tool Shows Damage in Iran and the Gulf

    When Satellite Imagery Goes Dark: New Tool Shows Damage in Iran and the Gulf

    Access to open source visuals of the current Iran conflict, which has spread to many parts of the Middle East, continues to be sporadic. Videos and photos from within Iran trickle out on social media as the Iranian internet blackout hinders the flow of digital communication. 

    In past conflicts, satellite imagery has provided a vital overview of potential damage to both military and civilian infrastructure, especially when there are digital black spots or obstacles to on-the-ground reporting. But imagery from commercial providers is becoming increasingly restricted, leaving even those who have access to the most expensive imagery in the dark. 

    Shortly after the war in Gaza began in 2023, Bellingcat introduced a free tool authored by University College London lecturer and Bellingcat contributor, Ollie Ballinger, that was able to estimate the number of damaged buildings in a given area. This helped monitor and map the scale of destruction across the territory as Israel’s military operation progressed. 

    Bellingcat is now introducing an updated version of the open source tool — called the Iran Conflict Damage Proxy Map — focused on destruction in Iran and the wider Gulf region. 

    It can be accessed here.

    How it Works

    The tool works by conducting a statistical test on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery captured by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel-1 satellite. SAR sends pulses of microwaves at the earth’s surface and uses their echo to capture textural information about what it detects. 

    The SAR data for the geographic area covered by the tool is put through the Pixel-Wise T-Test (PWTT) damage detection algorithm, which was also developed by Ollie Ballinger. It takes a reference period of one year’s worth of SAR imagery before the onset of the war and calculates a “normal” range within which 99% of the observations fall. It then conducts the same process for imagery in an inference period following the onset of the war, and compares it to the reference period. The core idea is that if a building has become damaged since the beginning of the war, then the “echo” (called backscatter) from that pixel will be consistently outside of the normal range of values for that particular area. Investigators can then further probe potential damage around this highlighted area.

    The plot below shows how the process was applied to Gaza and several Syrian, Iraqi and Ukrainian cities. The bars represent the weekly total number of clashes in each place, sourced from the Armed Conflict Location Event (ACLED) dataset. The pre-war reference periods are shaded in blue, spanning one year before the onset of each conflict. The one month inference periods after the respective conflicts  began are shaded in orange. The blue and orange areas are what the tool compares. 

    The plot below shows an area with a number of warehouses in Tehran’s southwest. Some of the buildings show clear damage in optical Sentinel-2 imagery (something that has to be accessed outside of the tool via the Copernicus Browser). 

    Clicking on the map within the tool generates a chart displaying that pixel’s historical backscatter; the red dotted lines denote a range within which 99% of the pre-war backscatter values fall. In this example, we can see that from March 14 onwards, the backscatter values over this warehouse begin to consistently fall outside of their historical normal range. This could signal that damage has been detected in the area.

    Two important aspects of this workflow are that it utilises free and fully open access satellite data, as opposed to commercial satellite services; the second is that it overcomes some key limitations of AI in this domain, the most serious of which is called overfitting. This is where a model trained in one area is deployed in a new unseen area, and fails to generalise. Because we’re only ever comparing each pixel against its own historical baseline, we don’t run into that problem. 

    Accuracy

    The PWTT has been published in a scientific journal after two years of review.  Its accuracy was  assessed using an original dataset of over two million building footprints labeled by the United Nations, spanning 30 cities across Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, and Iraq. Despite being simple and lightweight, the algorithm has been recorded achieving building-level accuracy statistics (AUC=0.87 in the full sample) rivaling state of the art methods that use deep learning and high resolution imagery. The plot below compares building-level predictions from the PWTT against the UN damage annotations in Hostomel, Ukraine. True positives (PWTT and United Nations agree on damage) are shown in red, true negatives are shown in green, false positives in orange, and false negatives in purple. The graphic shows the accuracy of the tool, while also emphasising that further checks on what it highlights should be conducted to draw full conclusions.  

    It is important to note that just because the tool may show a high probability of a building or buildings being damaged or destroyed, that doesn’t make it definite. 

    It is best to check with any other available imagery — either open source photos and videos that’ve been geolocated by a group such as Geoconfirmed or Sentinel-2 as well as other commercial satellite imagery if it’s up-to-date for the area. At time of publication, Sentinel-2 satellite imagery still offers coverage over the area that the tool focuses on. Other commercial satellite imagery providers have limited their coverage.

    What the tool excels at is highlighting and narrowing down areas so that further corroboration or further confirmation can be sought.

    Testing the Tool

    Using the Iran Conflict Damage Proxy Map, we can spot some of the larger areas of potential damage or destruction that have occurred since the Iran war started. 

    Starting from a zoomed-out view of Tehran, there are a few spots that appear with large clusters of high damage probability. Cross-referencing these locations with open source map data from platforms like OpenStreetMap or Wikimapia, we can start finding sites that would make for likely targets – such as military sites.

    One example of a potentially damaged site visible in the tool is the Valiasr Barracks in central Tehran, which was struck in the first week of the war. By going to the Copernicus Browser and reviewing the area with optical Sentinel-2 imagery, we can see clear indications of damage at the barracks.

    IRGC Valiasr Barracks in Tehran:

    Below: Sentinel-2 comparison of February 20 and March 17.

    A large Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) compound near Isfahan is another example of military infrastructure that is readily visible in both the Iran Conflict Damage Proxy Map as well as Sentinel-2 imagery. 

    IRGC Ashura Garrison in Isfahan:

    Below: Sentinel-2 comparison of February 20 and March 17.

    Air bases have also been a frequent target for U.S.-Israeli strikes in Iran. The Fath Air Base just outside of Tehran, near the city of Karaj, shows the signature of potential damage when using the tool. Checking Sentinel-2 imagery shows damage to multiple large buildings on the northern side of the base.

    Fath Air Base in Karaj:

    Below: Sentinel-2 comparison of February 20 and March 17.

    The U.S. has stated that destroying Iran’s “defense industrial base” is also a goal, which makes large areas like the Khojir missile production complex east of Tehran a good location to search with this tool. The tool suggests large clusters of damage on both the eastern and western sides of the complex — near areas where solid propellant is reportedly produced and where other fuel components are reportedly made.

    Khojir Missile Production Complex outside of Tehran:

    Below: Sentinel-2 comparison of February 20 and March 17.

    Usage in the Gulf Region

    While useful for providing a sense of damaged areas in Iran, the Iran Conflict Damage Proxy Map can also be used to see damage outside of Iran, particularly at sites in the region which Iran has been targeting with drones and missiles.

    In the below example at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts U.S. Central Command’s Combined Air Operations Center, there is a notable indication of damage over a warehouse-like building at 25.115647, 51.333125. Checking the same location in Sentinel-2 imagery shows that there does appear to be damage at that warehouse — represented by a large blackened area on the white roof. According to Qatar’s Ministry of Defense, at least one Iranian ballistic missile struck the base in early March.

    Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar:

    Below: Sentinel-2 comparison of February 22 and March 14.

    Civilian sites struck by Iranian drones or missiles are also visible in the tool — though the damage has to be fairly large in order to be picked up. Something like damage to the sides of high rise buildings from an Iranian drone attack doesn’t readily appear in the tool. Sites that do appear are places like oil refineries, such as a fuel tank at Fujairah port in the United Arab Emirates. 

    Fuel tanks at Fujairah Port, UAE:

    Below: Sentinel-2 comparison of March 3 and March 28.

    Accessing the Tool

    It’s important to keep in mind that the data for the Iran Conflict Damage Proxy Map is updated approximately one or two times per week as new satellite data is collected by the Sentinel-1 satellite, so it’s not meant to be a representation of real-time damage to buildings. 

    Still, it can be useful for researchers to quickly gain an overview of damage throughout Iran and the Gulf where suspected strikes may have taken place and when there is no other open source information available.

    You can access the Iran Conflict Damage Proxy Map here.

    Similar tools using the same methodology to assess damage in Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion and Turkey following the 2023 earthquake can be found here. The Gaza Damage Proxy Map can be found here


    Bellingcat’s Logan Williams contributed to this report.

    Bellingcat is a non-profit and the ability to carry out our work is dependent on the kind support of individual donors. If you would like to support our work, you can do so here. You can also subscribe to our Patreon channel here. Subscribe to our Newsletter and follow us on Bluesky here, Instagram here, Reddit here and YouTube here.

    The post When Satellite Imagery Goes Dark: New Tool Shows Damage in Iran and the Gulf appeared first on bellingcat.

  • Why Timor-Leste is at Risk of Becoming a Scammers’ Paradise

    Online scam operations uncovered in a remote exclave, a national ID program reportedly infiltrated by cybercriminals, tales of bags of cash arriving on private planes. The tiny Southeast Asian country of Timor-Leste is battling the scourge of transnational fraud syndicates. And according to some in its government, it is at risk of an existential defeat. 

    In an extraordinary “manifesto” posted on social media in September, the minister with oversight over the country’s intelligence agency, Agio Pereira, warned that foreign criminals have corrupted the country’s legal system, co-opted regulatory bodies, and bought its politicians.

    “These foreign criminals came not as conquerors with armies, but as corruptors with suitcases full of dirty money,” wrote Pereira. “Will we be a sovereign nation governed by democratic laws and institutions, or will we become a criminal state possessed by foreign mafia syndicates?”

    Southeast Asia has been hit by a cyber-fraud crime wave of epic proportions over the past decade. In countries like Cambodia, Myanmar, and the Philippines, industrial-scale scam operations have targeted victims around the world, stealing as much as $64 billion annually, according to a United Nations report this year.

    A former Portuguese colony with a population of 1.4 million located on the far eastern fringe of Southeast Asia, Timor-Leste was largely overlooked by the powerful cyber-fraud gangs, until now.

    “What is currently being observed in Timor-Leste shares stark similarities to what was seen in the early stages of the current scam centre crisis in Mekong countries and the Philippines,” the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said in a threat alert released in September.  

    The fears of a looming crisis provide the backdrop to an investigation by OCCRP and Guardian Australia that found three people sanctioned by the U.S. government last October for alleged ties to the Cambodia-based Prince Group — the world’s largest alleged cyber-fraud syndicate — had been involved in a proposed luxury cryptocurrency resort project in Timor-Leste. 

    The Prince Group says it “categorically rejects that it or its founder, Chen Zhi, has engaged in any unlawful activity.” The sanctioned individuals involved in the Timor-Leste resort project were dismissed or withdrew their investments after the U.S. sanctions were announced.

    Experts say Timor-Leste has traits that make it attractive to transnational crime syndicates, and a magnet for money-launderers.

    The country is one of the most oil-dependent in the world, its productive petroleum reserves are dwindling, and it desperately needs foreign investment as it seeks to diversify its economy. It has porous borders and poorly equipped police. It also has a cash-based economy and, much like prominent online scam hub Cambodia, Timor-Leste uses the U.S. dollar. This makes it easier for criminals based in the country to shift funds internationally, Timor-Leste’s central bank governor, Helder Lopes, told OCCRP. 

    “It’s very easy for the cross-border transaction,” he explained in an interview. “If their money is dirty somewhere else and they would like to clean it, they come to here. If they happen to go into our system and clean it, then it can go anywhere.”

    Damien Kingsbury, an Australian academic and longtime analyst of Timor-Leste, said poverty and a lack of job opportunities for its predominantly young population was another factor that made the country vulnerable. Its many youth gangs could potentially be co-opted by organized crime groups, Kingsbury said.

    The youth gangs “have made inroads into the police force and military, which makes detecting and prosecuting their criminal behavior more difficult,” he added. Kingsbury said that corruption in Timor-Leste is already commonplace. 

    “It is not so bad as to undermine the whole fabric of political society but is bad enough to ensure that government projects in particular lack oversight, suffer from heavily padded contracts and have embedded a culture of nepotism and political favor,” he said.   

    Scam Centers and Gambling Shops

    The first clear sign that something was going wrong in Timor-Leste came during a raid last August in Oecusse, a small exclave nestled on three sides by Indonesian territory.

    When police entered the exclave’s Oe-Upu Hotel, they uncovered a scene that was reminiscent of established scam centers elsewhere in Southeast Asia: rows of desks covered in computer monitors and discarded water bottles, staffed by a startled workforce that, according to local media, comprised mostly women from Indonesia, China, Malaysia, and Singapore. SIM cards and Starlink satellite devices were seized, and six low-level staff arrested.

    One mid-level staff member of the scam operation, who spoke to OCCRP on the basis of anonymity for fear of retribution, said he recruited local scammers to target mostly female Brazilians and Indonesians. The scammers purported to sell goods online such as beauty products, but kept the money without ever sending customers the purchases. 

    The employee was not arrested and the fate of all those arrested in the raids is unknown. A police spokesperson did not respond when telephoned for comment.

    The employee said his bosses — many of them ethnic Chinese from Malaysia — asked if he wanted to work in scam centers in Cambodia, offering $1,000 a month, about four times average monthly earnings in Timor-Leste. It was an offer he rejected, but he said he helped some of his colleagues after they were arrested in the raids in Oecusse. 

    “They were found guilty but then they have to pay money and they can go home straight away,” he said, adding each paid $10,000 to the court.

    In the wake of the raids, Timor-Leste’s government has launched a plan to combat organized crime by tackling online gambling, and gathered support from international anti-crime agencies. 

    In a separate case in Oecusse last year, a company chaired by a convicted cybercriminal was hired by officials to manage the regional government’s contract for a national ID project, according to the 2025 UNODC threat alert. The company’s chairman had earlier been convicted in Singapore for conspiring to acquire stolen personal data, reportedly for use in online scams and gambling operations, the UNODC said. 

    After the scam center and ID project controversy were exposed, the head of Oecusse’s special administrative region, Rogerio Lobato, was replaced with no explanation in October. 

    That same month, the government revoked the first online gambling license it had issued only six months earlier, citing “risks to the country’s security, social stability, economic integrity, and international reputation.” Although the government has not given further detail about the reasons for that decision, online gambling has long been linked to organized crime, scams, and money laundering across Southeast Asia.

    The country’s prime minister, meanwhile, personally supervised the shutdown of a lottery office known as the Grand Dragon in the capital’s main mall. The lottery operation reportedly shares ownership with the company that lost its online gambling license, Grand River Universe (GRU). In a statement on its website, GRU said it “respected the sovereign decision of Timor-Leste” to cancel its online gambling license, noting it had “not conducted any active business in the gaming sector in Timor-Leste.” 

    Spotlight on Passports 

    In the cases of alleged organized crime uncovered in Timor-Leste last year, those implicated carried multiple passports and entered the country “using documents issued by states other than their actual nationality,” according to the UNODC. 

    Multiple passports help criminals by making it difficult for authorities to track them as they cross borders, open bank accounts, and establish companies and businesses, the U.N. agency said.

    “Such tactics undermine global efforts to combat transnational organized crime, particularly when criminals use FDI [foreign direct investment] to legitimize their presence and launder illicit funds,” it said.

    Disquiet about Timor-Leste’s passport administration extends to the issuing of diplomatic passports to foreigners.  

    In a September letter to Timor-Leste’s prime minister, local civil society groups called for the review and cancellation of diplomatic passports issued to non-citizens.

    The letter’s signatories said they had “serious concerns regarding Timor-Leste’s sovereignty, constitutional order, and adherence to the rule of law — foundational principles shaped by the sacrifices of its people.”

    Only an accredited diplomat who holds a diplomatic passport gets immunity from prosecution in the country in which they are posted, but the document can smooth travel across borders for other holders, said Don Rothwell, an expert in international law at the Australian National University.

    “In many instances, it will be effectively visa-free travel,” he said. “They will probably be exempt from luggage checks.”

    Timor-Leste’s president Jose Ramos-Horta — who can request the prestigious travel documents be issued and appoint foreigners as special advisers — defended the practice, noting he could cancel a passport at any time. Holders could be checked at customs, he added. Moreover, he said, recipients could attract investment to the country and spur development.

    “We don’t pay them anything,” he told reporters in an interview. “So the least we can do is [offer] some status, which they like.”

    The president, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Timor-Leste independence hero, said the country was vulnerable to “sophisticated” offshore crime gangs and must be “unforgiving and ruthless” in combating them. 

    Even so, he dismissed  senior minister Pereira’s depiction of widespread corruption and a nation-state at risk of being captured by organized crime. “Nonsense. Exaggerated,” he said.

    “There is corruption,” he added. ”Mostly petty corruption at the mid-level.”

  • Ethiopian Authorities Dismantle Brutal East African Smuggling Ring

    Ethiopian authorities have arrested the suspected mastermind behind a sprawling human trafficking network accused of smuggling thousands of migrants and subjecting them to severe violence and extortion en route to Europe. The network is accused of killing more than 100 people and sexually assaulting at least 50 women.

    The ringleader, identified by the Ethiopian Federal Police as Yitbarek Dawit, was apprehended alongside nine accomplices. Investigators say the criminal syndicate has been operating since 2018 and is responsible for smuggling more than 3,000 young people from across East Africa, explicitly targeting victims in Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia.

    Migrants were systematically transported to detention centers in Libya—a notorious and perilous transit hub for those attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Once there, they were held captive and tortured to extract ransom payments from their desperate families. Authorities noted that these grim details have been corroborated by testimonies from over 100 survivors and their relatives.

    The arrests are part of a sweeping, nationwide crackdown on human smuggling operations. Ethiopian authorities have so far identified more than 70 suspected traffickers and successfully tracked down 10 individuals, including Dawit.

    The suspected traffickers have been formally transferred to the Ethiopian Justice Ministry to face prosecution, according to the state-run Ethiopian News Agency.

  • From misdiagnosis to medical bias: Why women are living longer but not better

    For 25 years, the world has made significant progress in advancing women’s right to health, particularly in sexual and reproductive care. Women are living longer than ever before – but they are not living better.
  • Supreme Court Wipes Piracy Liability Verdict Against Grande Communications

    Supreme Court Wipes Piracy Liability Verdict Against Grande Communications

    In late 2022, several of the world’s largest music companies, including Warner Bros. and Sony Music prevailed in their lawsuit against Internet provider Grande Communications.

    The record labels accused the Astound-owned ISP of not doing enough to stop pirating subscribers. Specifically, they alleged that the company failed to terminate repeat infringers.

    The trial lasted more than two weeks and ended in a resounding victory for the labels. A Texas federal jury found Grande liable for willful contributory copyright infringement, and the ISP was ordered to pay $47 million in damages to the record labels. The copyright infringement verdict was confirmed by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, though the Fifth Circuit ordered a new trial on damages.

    The verdict was not the final word yet, as Grande petitioned the Supreme Court last year, urging the justices to take up the case and review the Fifth Circuit’s decision.

    Grande’s petition centered on the crucial question of ISP liability in cases of contributory copyright infringement. Grande framed the issue as an “exceptionally important question under the Copyright Act,” highlighting a “nationwide litigation campaign by the U.S. recording industry” to hold ISPs liable for copyright violations carried out by their customers.

    The central question is as follows:  

    “Whether an ISP is liable for contributory copyright infringement by (i) providing content-neutral internet access to the general public and (ii) failing to terminate that access after receiving two third-party notices alleging someone at a customer’s IP address has infringed.”

    Knowledge is Not Intent

    The case and the questions are similar to the Cox v. Sony case, which the Supreme Court decided in favor of the Internet provider last month. In a 7-2 decision, it concluded that an ISP cannot be held contributorily liable for copyright infringement merely because it kept providing service to subscribers that were flagged for piracy.

    In Cox, the Supreme Court stated that contributory liability requires proof that the provider intended its service to be used for infringement. That intent can only be shown in one of two ways. Either the provider actively induced infringement, or the service is one that has no substantial non-infringing uses.

    “Under our precedents, a company is not liable as a copyright infringer for merely providing a service to the general public with knowledge that it will be used by some to infringe copyrights. Accordingly, we reverse,” Justice Thomas wrote in the opinion last month.

    The Court also directly countered the Fourth Circuit’s reasoning, which held that supplying a product with “knowledge” of future infringement was enough to establish liability.

    Supreme Court Sends Grande v. UMG Back to Fifth Circuit

    With Cox v. Sony now settled, the Supreme Court turned its attention to Grande’s pending petition. Rather than taking up the case on the merits, the Court issued a GVR order, granting the petition, vacating the Fifth Circuit’s judgment, and remanding the case for reconsideration under the Cox standard.

    The order effectively removes the case from the Supreme Court docket, urging the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to take another look at its decision in light of the new ruling.

    The order

    the order

    Given the similarities between the two cases, it is no surprise that the Supreme Court came to this conclusion.

    It is now up to the Fifth Circuit to revisit whether Grande’s conduct meets the intent threshold that was established in Cox. That is a significantly higher bar than the one applied in the original verdict, which found that continuing to provide service to known infringers was enough to establish material contribution.

    The music companies previously said they sent over a million copyright infringement notices, but that Grande failed to terminate even a single subscriber account in response. However, without proof of active inducement, these absolute numbers carry less weight now.

    Whether this translates into a win for Grande on remand remains to be seen. For now, however, the original $47 million verdict is further away than ever.

    This week’s GVR order is just one of the many ripple effects of the Sony ruling on other contributory infringement cases. Last week, we reported how X already asked the court to dismiss its liability battle with several music publishers. Meanwhile, the ruling will also directly impact Verizon’s repeat infringer battle with the music industry.

    From: TF, for the latest news on copyright battles, piracy and more.

  • Legislative Alchemy: Licensing reflexologists and other practitioners of pseudoscience

    State legislatures are considering bills that would legitimize pseudoscience like reflexology and reiki by recognizing their practitioners as health care professionals.

    The post Legislative Alchemy: Licensing reflexologists and other practitioners of pseudoscience first appeared on Science-Based Medicine.

  • Pluralistic: Switzerland’s Goldilocks fiber (07 Apr 2026)

    Today’s links

    • Switzerland’s Goldilocks fiber: Public provision is a layered question.
    • Hey look at this: Delights to delectate.
    • Object permanence: EU appoints henhouse fox (copyright); Emacs x Tron: Legacy; Spammer v dead man’s AOL account; Scott Walker’s pork fountain; “No toilets, try Amazon”; Iceland falls (x Panama Papers); Rooms in Milanese sewers; China bans Panama Papers; “Parent Hacks”; “The Nameless City”; Phishing the world’s top breach expert.
    • Upcoming appearances: Toronto, Montreal, Toronto, San Francisco, London, Berlin, NYC, Hay-on-Wye, London.
    • Recent appearances: Where I’ve been.
    • Latest books: You keep readin’ em, I’ll keep writin’ ’em.
    • Upcoming books: Like I said, I’ll keep writin’ ’em.
    • Colophon: All the rest.



    A vintage idyllic picture-postcard view of Lucerne, Switzerland; it features an impressive lakeside building and two elegant span bridges, with snow-capped Alps in the background. The image has been altered: a 'code waterfall' effect (as seen in the credit sequences of the Wachowskis' 'Matrix' movies) cascades down over the mountains and streaks across the water of the lake. Three massive fiber optic bundles rear up out of the harbor, their cut tips glowing white. The Swiss flag atop the lakeside building is haloed with radiant glowing streaks.

    Switzerland’s Goldilocks fiber (permalink)

    If you live in Switzerland you can get a 25Gbit fiber link to your home. That’s 25Gbit symmetrical – upload and download. On a dedicated connection that’s yours and yours alone. From multiple providers. And you can switch providers with the click of a mouse. It’s the ne plus ultra, magnifico, wunderschön:

    https://www.init7.net/de/internet/fiber7/

    In a fascinating blog post, Stefan Schüller unpacks how this came to pass, in Switzerland, a country known for its impassable mountains and its impossible national telco (Swisscom):

    https://sschueller.github.io/posts/the-free-market-lie/

    Schüller describes the Swiss system as a kind of Goldilocks approach that’s midway between two failed systems: the American “free market” system and the German state provision system.

    Most people in the US can’t get fiber at all, and if you can get it, it’s probably 1Gbit, and available from a single provider (that’s nearly my situation in Los Angeles, where I can buy 2Gbit symmetrical fiber from AT&T, who run a shared connection on old Worldcom fiber they’ve lit up). Some (very foolish) people say that Starlink represents a competitive alternative to fiber. This is nonsense – first, because Starlink is another natural monopoly (how many competing satellite constellations can we cram into stable orbits before they start smashing into each other?), and second, because satellite is millions of times slower than fiber:

    https://www.somebits.com/weblog/tech/bad/starlink-nov-2022-data-caps.html

    In Germany, most people also have a single fiber provider, and the connection they get is shared, and caps out at 1-2Gbit.

    Meanwhile, the Swiss can get connections that are far faster, and cheaper. How did they do it?

    For starters, the Swiss recognized what any Simcity player knows: fiber is a “natural monopoly.” It doesn’t make any sense to build multiple, competing fiber networks – any more than it would make sense to build multiple, competing sewer systems or electric grids.

    In the US, private fiber providers get city permits to dig up the roads and lay their network. If you have two competing networks, they dig up the road twice.

    You’d think that the (more regulated) Germans would lay a single network, but they, too, have multiple, competing networks. German regulators have a complex set of priorities and constraints: to encourage competition, they promote the idea of competing networks in competing trenches, often just meters apart (rather than on competing services running over the same fiber and/or fiber run through the same conduit – pipe – laid in a single trench).

    This makes setting up fiber extremely capital-intensive, so Germany backstops this system with “essential facilities sharing” – a rule that requires the incumbent (formerly state-owned, now partially state-owned) Deutsche Telekom to offer space in its conduit to smaller ISPs that want to thread their own fiber from their data-centers to their customers’ homes. This is a good idea in theory – but in practice, DT has largely captured its regulators and so it is free to place all kinds of administrative hurdles in the paths of competitors seeking to use its lines.

    The result is that Germans can get fiber from multiple, heavily capitalized network providers who overbuilt redundant systems under the city streets, squandering capital digging trenches that they could have spent on providing faster and/or cheaper connections.

    Meanwhile, in the US, they leave this all up to “the market” (though, of course, there’s no way “the market” could get fiber laid down without public participation, because the clearing price for privately negotiated licenses to dig up every street in town is “infinity”). The US is dominated by a cartel of massive incumbents: there’s AT&T (formerly a regulated monopoly that was so entangled with the US government that it was effectively a for-profit state enterprise) and the cable giants, Comcast and Charter, who divide up the country into exclusive territories like the Pope dividing up the “New World.”

    These companies generally enjoy regional monopolies, which means they’re less interested in making profits (money you get by mobilizing capital) than they are from extracting rent (money you get from sweating assets). For example, when Frontier went bankrupt in 2020, we got to look at its internal bookkeeping system, and learned that the company treated 1m customers who had no alternative carriers as special assets because it could charge them more for worse service and poor maintenance:

    https://pluralistic.net/2022/12/15/useful-idiotsuseful-idiots/

    This means that US fiber networks tend to be underbuilt (the opposite of Germany’s overbuilt networks), meaning that even if you’re buying “gigabit” fiber, you’re probably sharing that one gig connection with your whole block or neighborhood, so you only get your nominal throughput at weird hours when all the other subscribers aren’t streaming Netflix.

    (Note that there are cities in the US with a better situation; particularly cities served by Ting, which is owned by Hover, the amazing domain registry. Ting operates an excellent mobile carrier and a fiber networks in many cities. If you are lucky enough to have Ting as an option, then you should treasure that option.)

    So, that’s Germany and America. What did they do in Switzerland?

    For starters, they ran a four-strand, dedicated line (an insulated wire with four separate strands of fiber in it) to every house. That wire terminates at your wall with a “neutral, open hub.” Any carrier can provide service over those four strands: Swisscom (the incumbent, majority state-owned carrier); Init7 or Salt (national, commercial carriers); or a local ISP.

    Each of the strands in your neutral hub operate independently. That means that you can switch from one carrier to another with a click. You can also run two or more carriers’ signal through your hub, meaning that you can try out a new carrier before canceling your old one. The carriers compete on price, speed and customer service – but they don’t compete on who can actually connect your home to the internet.

    The origins of this excellent system are in 2008, when Switzerland’s Federal Communications Commission convened a roundtable to determine the future of the country’s broadband. Incredibly, it was Swisscom that pushed for the multi-strand, dedicated fiber system, on the grounds that anything less would lead to monopolization.

    I say “incredibly,” because in all my travels over the past three decades, a single encounter with Swisscom stands out as the most absurd and backwards run-in I ever experienced with a telco.

    It was while I was working as EFF’s delegate to the United Nations in Geneva, as part of an infinitesimal coalition of digital rights group convened by James Love and Manon Ress of Knowledge Ecology International. Geneva is not a forgiving city for someone working for a cash-strapped NGO: it’s a city where everyone (except you) is on a lavish expense account courtesy of a national government, or (better still) an industry body that lobbies the UN.

    My usual daggy two-star hotel (which cost as much as a four-star in London) didn’t have its own wifi: instead, you signed on through Swisscom, which did not offer its own payment processing. To get onto the Swisscom wifi, you had to buy a scratch-off prepaid card that was good for a certain number of hours or minutes. The hotel was always sold out of these cards.

    So my normal ritual upon my arrival in Geneva was to scour the tobacco shops around the train station for scratch-off cards. Normally, this would take four or five tries – the shops would either be completely sold out, or would only have the two-hour cards (needless to say, these were a lot more expensive on a per-hour basis than the one-day and multi-day cards).

    On one trip, though, all the shops were sold out of these cards, so I skipped breakfast the next morning to wait outside the doors of the Swisscom offices, which opened five minutes late (the only business in Switzerland that wasn’t achingly prompt!). The clerk let me in eventually, but when I approached his counter, he made me trudge to the opposite end of the room to take a number (I was the only person in the shop).

    After an ostentatious delay, the clerk called out “Numero un!” and I went up to his counter and asked for a three-day card. No dice, he was sold out. Two-day cards? Nope. One-day? Uh-uh. He only had two-hour cards, too. Literally, the Swiss national telco had run out of integers.

    This incident stuck with me so durably that I wrote it into my third novel, Someone Comes To Town, Someone Leaves Town. You can hear me read that passage here:

    https://pluralistic.net/2020/08/17/aura-of-benevolence/#sctt-slt

    So it’s frankly amazing to me to learn that Swisscom – who will forever be synonymous in my mind with the most catastrophically stupid internet delivery system imaginable – demanded this anti-monopoly fiber rollout.

    But – as Schüller points out – Swisscom’s foray into uncharacteristic reasonableness was short-lived. By 2020, the company had regressed to its mean, and was demanding an end to the neutral, four-strand, point-to-point system, petitioning for regulatory permission to switch to a cheaper, slower, shared hub-and-spoke system. This system wouldn’t just be slower – it would also require all of Swisscom’s rivals to rent access to its fiber, with Swisscom having the final say over who could compete with it and how.

    This went all the way to the Swiss federal courts, who ruled that Swisscom had failed to demonstrate “sufficient technological or economic grounds” for the change and fined the company CHF18m for wasting everyone’s time with this stupid idea (that is, “violating Swiss competition law”). And so it is that, in 2026, you can get 25Gbit symmetrical fiber throughout Switzerland. Wunderschön!

    Schüller closes out his piece with a set of recommendations for countries hoping to replicate Switzerland’s broadband miracle: open access to physical infrastructure; point-to-point service; neutral fiber standards; municipal fiber; and strong antitrust enforcement to keep the incumbent carriers in line.

    These are great recommendations; they address the contradiction of regulated monopoly telcoms provision. On the one hand, these networks are natural monopolies, and they can only exist with extensive government intervention (at a minimum, to clear the way for poles, trenches and conduit for the physical fiber).

    On the other hand, telcoms (especially broadband) play an important role in the political realm, because broadband connections are essential to civic and political engagement. You can’t turn people out for a protest, or run an election campaign, a referendum, a ballot initiative, a regulatory notice-and-comment campaign, or even a campaign to get people to a public meeting or listening session without broadband.

    This means that state-provided broadband is an incredibly tempting target for political corruption and regulatory capture. Think of all the terrible things that governments are doing with broadband regulation today, like Trump demanding that service providers turn over the identities and locations of his political enemies so that ICE can hunt them down and kidnap or murder them; or “age verification” systems that accumulate mountains of easily raided personal information on adults and children.

    Do you want Trump’s FCC chairman Brendan Carr setting content moderation policies for your internet connection? The guy who wants to pull TV and radio stations’ broadcast licenses if they criticize Trump and Israel’s catastrophic Iran war?

    https://www.techdirt.com/2026/03/17/brendan-carr-pretends-to-be-tough-demands-broadcasters-support-disastrous-war/

    Do you want your local ISP being run by your mayor? I mean, sure, there are some reasonable mayors out there, but imagine if your ISP was managed by Eric Adams, Boris Johnson…or Rob Ford:

    https://www.patreon.com/posts/rob-ford-part-1-111985831

    Saying that broadband should be run “like a utility,” raises more questions than it answers. I, too, want broadband run “like a utility,” but that doesn’t mean that I want the whole show to be provided solely by my federal or municipal government. A “utility” model for broadband should mean running conduit to every home in town, with point-to-point connections that deliver broadband via a municipally owned network – but not just that.

    The municipal network should also offer “essential facilities sharing” in two forms: first, they should allow anyone to set up an ISP by renting shelf-space in the municipal data-center and installing their own switches that can provide internet to anyone in town. This would let large and small companies set up ISPs, as well as co-ops and nonprofits, or even tinkerers wanting to provide access to a group of friends. Beyond that, the city should rent space in the conduit itself, to support point-to-point links beyond those offered by the city – for example, between a university campus and an offsite supercomputing center, or two buildings owned by the same company, or even as a parallel set of fiber connections run by someone who’s fed up with getting their internet service from Eric Adams.

    This is a “pluralized” utility model: one that involves the city in providing infrastructure at several layers, as well as a “public option” – but which doesn’t allow a city that’s in thrall to Moms For Liberty to decide what you can say on the internet.

    This principle generalizes beyond internet provision, too. Many people have observed that social media, with its strong “network effects” (meaning its value increases as more people use it), could be a “natural monopoly” and want a social media “utility.” I can see the reasoning there, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned from zuckermuskian legacy social media, it’s that centralized control over speech forums is a moral hazard and an attractive nuisance. It’s a political prize beyond measure, and it attracts all sorts of skullduggerous bids to suborn it and harness it to some political faction.

    But there’s a pluralized utility model for social media, too, thanks to modern, federated social media systems like Mastodon and Bluesky. These are open platforms that can support multiple, interconnected servers that all talk to one another. Unlike, say, Twitter, where you can only talk to other Twitter users, federated social media allows you to talk with anyone on any server, provided they want to talk with you.

    As with fiber, a “utility” model for federated social media would feature public intervention at multiple layers of the system. Governments could (should!) run their own servers, providing the canonical source of government information. They can also provide turnkey cloud services for people who want to start their own services – and they can spin out the code that goes into these services into free/open source projects that others can use (and contribute to). Governments could support people who are trying to migrate off of legacy social media (for example, through library workshops and helplines), and pay to label and tag media (for example, media that is compliant with the public education curriculum). Governments could also offer public servers where you could sign up to get online – and because federated social media makes it easy to move your account from one server to another, it would be easy to move from that server to one run by a nonprofit, a co-op or a business:

    https://pluralistic.net/2025/06/25/eurostack/#viktor-orbans-isp

    Think of this pluralized utility model as being something like your city’s roads. It’s great for your city to provide roads, and great for them to run buses on those roads, and to create bike lanes and bike parking spots and other infrastructure. For roads to be “public,” it does not follow that everything on them be licensed and operated by the municipal government: we can still have private bikes, bikeshares, regulated taxis and licensed private motor vehicles. The roads are still “public” but Boris Johnson doesn’t get to decide where you can go.

    A utility model needn’t be all-or-nothing. As the Swiss have demonstrated, public provision of various layers of the system, combined with strong regulation, combined with a public option, can deliver a best-of-all-worlds solution.


    Hey look at this (permalink)



    A shelf of leatherbound history books with a gilt-stamped series title, 'The World's Famous Events.'

    Object permanence (permalink)

    #15yrsago Recording industry lobbyist appointed head of copyright for European Commission https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/04/top-music-industry-lawyer-now-eu-copyright-chief/

    #15yrsago How emacs got into Tron: Legacy https://web.archive.org/web/20110407224426/http://jtnimoy.net/workviewer.php?q=178

    #15yrsago Dead man’s AOL account hijacked by spammer https://ip.topicbox.com/groups/ip/T274c51b2ba843fb0-Mb6bf8853b1ed34a26b07ce44/deceasesd-father-in-law-spamming-friends-and-family-two-years-on

    #15yrsago Scarring Party: megaphone songs, sea chanteys and dark vaudeville tunes https://web.archive.org/web/20110406044523/http://www.avclub.com/milwaukee/articles/the-scarring-party-losing-teeth%2C43871/

    #15yrsago Snaggly table made out of computer junk https://web.archive.org/web/20110406044521/http://brcdesigns.com/furniture/binary-low-table

    #15yrsago Scott Walker gives cushy $85.5K/year government job to major donor’s young, underqualified son https://web.archive.org/web/20110406040138/https://thinkprogress.org/2011/04/04/scott-walker-hires-dropout/

    #15yrsago Closing down Borders sign: “No toilets, try Amazon” https://web.archive.org/web/20110406044522/https://consumerist.com/2011/04/sign-at-borders-store-closing-in-chicago-tells-customers-where-to-find-a-restroom.html

    #15yrsago What is legitimate “newsgathering” and what is “piracy”? https://zunguzungu.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/why-arianna-huffington-is-bill-kellers-somali-pirate/

    #10yrsago Iceland’s Prime Minister asks to dissolve Parliament https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35966412

    #10yrsago Artist installs rooms beneath Milan’s sewer entrances https://web.archive.org/web/20160406132425/https://www.biancoshock.com/borderlife.html

    #10yrsago Banned on China’s Internet: all discussion of the Panama Papers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-35957235

    #10yrsago Google reaches into customers’ homes and bricks their gadgets https://arlogilbert.com/the-time-that-tony-fadell-sold-me-a-container-of-hummus-cb0941c762c1#.srp9ym34a

    #10yrsago Middle class housing projects are the Bay Area’s future https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/welcome-to-the-future-middle-class-housing-projects

    #10yrsago Pollster explains how Chamber of Commerce can steamroller empathetic execs into opposing progressive policies https://web.archive.org/web/20160406190524/https://gawker.com/business-execs-support-progressive-policies-but-the-ch-1768898477

    #10yrsago How to write about scientists who are women https://www.doublexscience.org/the-finkbeiner-test/

    #10yrsago Garden: XKCD’s latest maddening, relaxing webtoy https://xkcd.com/1663/#3978da67-1ead-45e1-a293-9c8e4918a147

    #10yrsago Parent Hacks: illustrated guide is the best kind of parenting book https://memex.craphound.com/2016/04/05/parent-hacks-illustrated-guide-is-the-best-kind-of-parenting-book/

    #10yrsago The Nameless City: YA graphic novel about diplomacy, hard and soft power, colonialism, bravery, and parkour https://memex.craphound.com/2016/04/05/the-nameless-city-ya-graphic-novel-about-diplomacy-hard-and-soft-power-colonialism-bravery-and-parkour/

    #5yrsago How Facebook will benefit from its massive breach https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/05/zucks-oily-rags/#into-the-breach

    #1yrago How the world’s leading breach expert got phished https://pluralistic.net/2025/04/05/troy-hunt/#teach-a-man-to-phish


    Upcoming appearances (permalink)

    A photo of me onstage, giving a speech, pounding the podium.



    A screenshot of me at my desk, doing a livecast.

    Recent appearances (permalink)



    A grid of my books with Will Stahle covers..

    Latest books (permalink)



    A cardboard book box with the Macmillan logo.

    Upcoming books (permalink)

    • “The Reverse-Centaur’s Guide to AI,” a short book about being a better AI critic, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, June 2026 (https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374621568/thereversecentaursguidetolifeafterai/)
    • “Enshittification, Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It” (the graphic novel), Firstsecond, 2026

    • “The Post-American Internet,” a geopolitical sequel of sorts to Enshittification, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2027

    • “Unauthorized Bread”: a middle-grades graphic novel adapted from my novella about refugees, toasters and DRM, FirstSecond, 2027

    • “The Memex Method,” Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 2027



    Colophon (permalink)

    Today’s top sources:

    Currently writing: “The Post-American Internet,” a sequel to “Enshittification,” about the better world the rest of us get to have now that Trump has torched America. First draft complete. Second draft underway.

    • “The Reverse Centaur’s Guide to AI,” a short book for Farrar, Straus and Giroux about being an effective AI critic. LEGAL REVIEW AND COPYEDIT COMPLETE.
    • “The Post-American Internet,” a short book about internet policy in the age of Trumpism. PLANNING.

    • A Little Brother short story about DIY insulin PLANNING


    This work – excluding any serialized fiction – is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. That means you can use it any way you like, including commercially, provided that you attribute it to me, Cory Doctorow, and include a link to pluralistic.net.

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    Quotations and images are not included in this license; they are included either under a limitation or exception to copyright, or on the basis of a separate license. Please exercise caution.


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  • Disruption expected as six-day doctors’ strike begins

    The NHS is advising patients in England to only use emergency services when necessary but attend any confirmed appointments.
  • “The Cruelty is Staggering”: Jasper Nathaniel on Reporting from the West Bank

    “The Cruelty is Staggering”: Jasper Nathaniel on Reporting from the West Bank

    In January of 2024, during his winter break at New York University—and having never yet written for an outside publication—reporter Jasper Nathaniel decided to travel to the West Bank. As a Jewish-American, he knew he could easily enter the region, and with Israeli settler violence increasing dramatically since the Oct. 7 attacks, there was no time to wait for an official assignment. 

  • “Bitter Root” Grapples with the Horror of American Racism

    “Bitter Root” Grapples with the Horror of American Racism

    The boys were fighting again. Not all three, just the six-year-old and the four-year-old, tussling over an action figure one had snuck into the convention center. The two-and-a-half-year-old pulled me in the other direction. He wanted everything. Every vendor table held another treasure to grab, another shiny thing that should be his. I watched him like a hawk.